What was really behind the change and Cuba U.S. relations?
he economic situation is what was behind this historic agreement. Castro brothers realized that time is running out for them, that there economy was collapsing, during the last 4 years, their economic policies were not working with nearly 20 percent unemployment rate (one of the highest in latin America) and government layoffs. All of this despite legalizing 178 types of private enterprise in which people could work.
To make matters worse Venezuela, who had been Cuba's prime benefactor, was falling apart, in a state of chaos and with little hope of improvement on the horizon. The Castros always had known that the U.S. was the best possible trading partner for them and it only took them 56 years to realize that the socialist economic system didn't work and that capitalism and a free maker based economy was the only realistic solution. Add to this that for a long time the Castro brothers wanted to add to their legacy by improving their image in the eyes world before they die.
Obama, always said that political change would not come “overnight” to Cuba, predicted that Havana would be “cautious” about opening up but that political reform would likely follow economic exchange as well as increased exposure to American culture and Western technology. “Our original theory on this was not that we were going to see immediate changes or loosening of the control of the Castro regime, but rather that over time you’d lay the predicates for substantial transformation,” Obama said.
“The more that they see the benefits of U.S. investment, the more that U.S. tourist dollars become woven into their economy, the more that telecommunications is opened up so that Cubans are getting information, unfettered by censorship, the more you’re laying the foundation for the bigger changes that are going to be coming over time,” he added.
“But Raul Castro is following the path blazed by China or Vietnam, of embracing limited market reforms “without letting go of the political reins,” Obama said.
“I think he’s going be cautious in how quickly he opens things up,” but he recognizes the need for change” driven by an awareness of the weaknesses in his country’s economic and political system,” Obama said.
Cuba will have its own version. Change could be gradual or rapid depending on how the Cuban government manages the transition. Once the embargo is lifted by congress, U.S. banks will set up relationships inside Cuba. That will mean U.S. credit cards will be accepted (one U.S. bank just issued credit cards that can be used in Cuba). American corporations as varied as McDonalds, KFC, Starbucks, the Gap, Disney, Bloomingdale's, Macy's, Hilton, Ritz-Carleton and Starwood will look to find opportunities in Cuba.
What Havana will look like in five years is anyone's guess.
Perhaps the most important development was the announcement that Master Card has removed the block on use of U.S.-issued credit cards in Cuba. The need to carry cash to cover all your expenses while in Cuba has long been one of the biggest pains about traveling there.
Change won’t come over night but as one writer said, “Obama’s efforts and change in policy have begun to nible at the edges of the embargo when will eventually be lifted.”
Cuba has always been a country that has endured centuries of oppression from countries far and near. The embargo and revolution may be slowly dying, however it is still not clear what will take their place
